Perhaps more than any other NFL team, this Denver Broncos season has been a year of highs and lows. The team started 1-5, which included losing its first two games by a combined three points before getting demolished 70-20 by the Miami Dolphins. The Broncos then won five in a row and reached a winning record before losing three out of its past four. Now, at 7-8, the Broncos are benching Russell Wilson and having Jarrett Stidham start at quarterback instead.
The timing is somewhat curious since the Broncos are still technically alive in the playoff hunt. And while Broncos head coach Sean Payton claims the move is simply to jump-start the offense, there's a financial element in play, too.
Wilson signed a five-year, $242.6 million contract in 2022. The Broncos owe him $39 million next year, no matter what. However, if Wilson is unable to pass a physical in early March, he'd receive an additional $37 million. By sitting him out over these final two games, the Broncos are ensuring he won't get hurt on the field — and saving on that $37 million price tag.
Yet, even if the Broncos cut or trade Wilson before next season begins, they'll still have to pay a massive amount of money.
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Denver has a few different options, and all of them will hurt financially. It can keep Wilson on the team and pay his $39 million salary in 2024, though the decision to bench him may mean Wilson has played his last game in Denver.
Alternatively, the Broncos could designate Wilson as a post-June 1 release this summer. In that scenario, they'd owe $85 million in dead money over the next two seasons, including $35.4 million in 2024 and $49.6 million in 2025. That would be on top of the $39 million Wilson will receive in cash.
If the Broncos traded Wilson before the June 1 deadline, the team would owe up to $68 million in dead money next year alone. However, the team that traded for Wilson would be on the hook for the following two seasons, which would equal a total of $54 million.
Payton joined the Broncos this offseason and has been vocal about the team's offensive struggles. Though Wilson has been more efficient than last season and is a top-ten quarterback in touchdown passes and passer rating, the Broncos have struggled on third downs, goal-to-go situations, and red zone trips.
Whether Payton will admit it or not, it's likely Wilson will be on another roster come 2024. The Broncos will have to decide how much they want to pay him to go play for another team.
